At least 140 million Nigerians could be living in poverty by 2026 despite ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, according to a senior economist at Lagos Business School.
Franklin Ngwu, Director of the Public Sector Initiative at the institution, said rising unemployment and worsening living conditions risk undermining the intended gains of reforms such as fuel subsidy removal and the floating of the naira.
Speaking on Arise Television’s Prime Time on Monday, Ngwu said Nigeria needed reforms but questioned the pace and method of implementation.
“Yes, we needed reforms,” he said. “But another issue is how the reforms were implemented, starting with fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange changes.”
Ngwu urged Nigerians to assess the reforms by comparing key economic indicators before and after the policy shifts. He said several indicators showed troubling trends.
“Unemployment is rising. Poverty is increasing. Debt is increasing,” he said. While government revenue has improved and inflation is expected to ease following a rebasing exercise, Ngwu said the benefits are yet to reach ordinary Nigerians.
Inflation, he noted, is projected to fall to about 15 per cent, but daily living costs remain high for most households. He argued that official statistics alone do not capture the lived experience of citizens.
“The main issue is how ordinary Nigerians see, perceive and feel about these reforms,” Ngwu said. “The two key areas are poverty and unemployment.”
He cited a recent United Nations report which estimates that about 30 million Nigerians could fall into poverty this year alone. If that projection holds, he said, the total number of people living in poverty could reach nearly 140 million by 2026.
Ngwu added that while some macroeconomic indicators are improving, the social impact of the reforms must be addressed to avoid deepening hardship.
He called for policies that balance fiscal reform with job creation and social protection, warning that economic recovery will remain fragile if rising poverty and unemployment are not tackled.
