A recent survey by The Wall Street Journal reveals that most economists foresee higher inflation, deficits, and interest rates under a second Trump administration compared to a continued Biden presidency.
The survey, conducted from July 5 to 9, gathered responses from 68 professional forecasters across business, Wall Street, and academia. Among the 50 who addressed questions about potential Trump and Biden administrations, 56% predicted higher inflation with Trump, while only 16% believed inflation would be higher under Biden. The remaining respondents saw no significant difference between the two scenarios.
The economists attributed their views primarily to Trump’s policy preferences, particularly concerning trade and immigration. The report noted that these assessments are unlikely to change substantially with a different Democratic candidate.
Analysts from the Economic Outlook Group emphasized the risk of inflation reaccelerating under a Trump presidency. They also noted that, on average, economists expect the U.S. gross domestic product to grow by 1.7% this year, a decrease from 3.1% growth in 2023 (based on the fourth quarter compared to the previous year).
Additionally, the survey anticipates that unemployment will stay slightly above 4% through 2026, with payrolls increasing by around 131,000 jobs per month over the next year. The probability of a recession within the next 12 months is estimated at 28%, a slight change from the previous survey conducted in April.
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