The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is carrying crude-secured loan obligations estimated at N8.07tn, according to its 2024 financial statements. The liabilities span several forward-sale and project-finance deals that require steady deliveries of crude and gas over many years. These deals have become central to the company’s funding as production remains unstable and investment slows.
One of the major exposures is tied to the Eagle Export Funding arrangement. While the financial statement notes a minimum delivery of 1.8 million barrels per cycle, earlier disclosures show the facility is made up of three loan tranches. Two tranches, worth $935m and $635m, were cleared in 2023. The outstanding tranche is a $900m facility backed by 21,000 barrels per day. Its balance stood at N1.1tn at the end of 2024.
A gas-supply financing deal with Nigeria LNG Limited adds further pressure. NLNG advanced N772bn for future gas deliveries. By December 2024, gas worth N535bn had been supplied, with N312bn recovered. An outstanding N472bn remains.
Refinery-rehabilitation financing accounts for some of the largest crude-linked debts. Project Yield, backing the Port Harcourt Refinery upgrade, had an outstanding N1.4tn drawdown. The agreement requires deliveries equal to 67,000 barrels per day. Repayment will start in June 2025 after a two-and-a-half-year moratorium.
Project Leopard, a five-year facility secured with 35,000 barrels per day, carried N1.3tn in outstanding debt. Repayment begins mid-2025 after a six-month moratorium.
The largest burden is Project Gazelle, which funded advance tax and royalty payments on Production Sharing Contract assets. By the end of 2024, NNPCL had drawn N4.9tn of the N5.1tn facility. Crude worth N991bn had been delivered, leaving N3.8tn outstanding. It requires sustained deliveries of 90,000 barrels per day.
Together, Eagle, Yield, Leopard and Gazelle commit NNPCL to 213,000 barrels per day, a significant share of Nigeria’s daily output. Analysts warn that this limits the company’s flexibility and exposes it to production shocks.
The warning comes as oil and gas profit fell by N824bn in 2024 despite higher output. Nigeria produced an average of 1.43 million barrels per day, below the 1.78 million-barrel target.
Experts say crude-for-cash deals have reduced inflows into the Federation Account and complicated revenue tracking. They call for full disclosure of swap arrangements and forward-sale contracts to restore confidence in the government’s earnings.
